2009 Green Cars Market Trends Review – Part 2
The Greenest of 2009
The natural gas-powered Honda Civic GX retains the title of the “greenest vehicle” for the sixth year running. Toyota’s hybrid-electric Prius, which places second, is the year’s top-scoring gasoline vehicle, while Honda’s Civic Hybrid ranks a close third. Rounding out the top five are the 2009 Smart Fortwo Convertible and Coupe and Toyota Yaris.
Domestically-produced vehicles are inching their way up, after being shut out entirely as recently as 2007. In 2008, the Ford Focus was the lone American vehicle on the Greenest list, sitting comfortably in the 9th spot. This year, the Focus was pushed from the list by the twins Chevrolet Cobalt/Pontiac G5, certified at PZEV / Tier 2 Bin 5, and the Tier 2 Bin 4 Chevrolet Aveo, among others. Narrowly missing out on a spot on the Greenest list were the Ford Focus, the Hyundai Accent, and the Toyota Corolla, all of which score very well but face stiff competition from vehicles with improved and more efficient engines.
The vast majority of the year’s Greenest Vehicles are widely available coast-to-coast. Not too long ago, the list was dominated by vehicles for sale only in California, while today more than 80 percent of the Greenest Vehicles can be purchased in any state.
Fluctuating Market Trends
The price of gasoline plays a significant role in determining vehicle purchase trends. Last year brought some of the highest energy prices in history but also a rapid fall in the per-barrel price of oil towards the end of the year. The average national retail price-per-gallon of gasoline climbed to $4.06 in July from $3.04 in January before eventually plunging to $1.69 in December 2008. Global economic conditions suggest that low gas prices will prevail in the near future. The question that remains now is whether or not consumers will continue to prioritize fuel economy when purchasing new vehicles.
While overall vehicle sales and, consequently, fuel-efficient vehicle sales have taken a significant hit over the past year as a result of the economic downturn, fluctuations in fuel prices have impacted consumer preferences over and above the effects of the current recession. Between August and December 2008, as gasoline prices plummeted, hybrid vehicle sales fell by 32 percent, more than the 28 percent fall in total vehicle sales during the same period. The industry has seen similar trends in national sales of lower-consuming compact vehicles, though perhaps to a lesser extent. Throughout 2008, compact vehicle sales remained strong. Compact vehicles began the year with 15.3 percent of total market share, rose to a healthy 21.3 percent in June when gasoline prices peaked, and subsequently fell to 16 percent by the end of the 4th quarter.
Changing consumer preferences are likely to continue into 2009 with uncertain economic conditions and energy price fluctuations. Nevertheless, market analysts expect the subcompact and compact share of the market to stay strong and the truck market to remain soft. Consumer preferences may continue to shift towards vehicles with smaller, less powerful engines. EPA suggests that 2008 marked the first year that 4-cylinder engines gained market share from 6- and 8-cylinder vehicles.
Bi- and Flex-Fuel Vehicles
Automakers are not currently offering vehicles with bi-fuel capability, meaning the ability to run on either an alternative fuel or gasoline. However, production of flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs), designed to run on either gasoline or the alcohol-gasoline blend known as E85 (85 percent ethanol, with 15 percent gasoline), is continuing to grow rapidly.
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